At the end of an interview, I was wished “happy father’s day, if you are one.”
“Not that I’m aware of,” was my response.
My father died when I was young and I have many wonderful memories of him. For some reason, today one particular moment came to mind.
We were watching “Superstars” – yes, that 1970s show on ABC that had athletes and actrons do olympicky sports stuff – and Linda Carter (“Wonder Woman” at the time) was running the hundred yard dash, obviously in the days before the invention of the sports bra.
And then I heard from the couch: “That has got to hurt” and I quickly realized my dad had made a boob reference. It was rather surprising, though, now that I think of it, considering my mother’s figure I do not think he was a “leg man.”
Anyway, happy father’s day to everyone who is sure they are a father and, of course, no “Superstars” reference would be complete without this infamous moment:
Afterwards, Fraizer said he didn’t bother to tell the show’s producers that he couldn’t swim because "How was I to know I couldn't unless I tried it?"
Speaking of not knowing until he tried it, Donald Trump is still leading in almost every national and – crucially – every swing state poll.
The numbers have stayed relatively consistent and it appears that his “conviction” of a crime that really doesn’t exist has not hurt him.
In a five-way race – him, Biden, RFK Jr, Cornel West, and Jill Stein – he has a 3 point edge over Biden – 43% to 40%, with RFK at 8% and West and Stein combined at 3% (the six-way polls should start coming out soon now that the Libertarians have finally nominated someone – that could drop Trump a point or so.)
It is however doubtful that the polling will have an impact on the campaign’s next big event – the CNN debate on the 27th. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html
To qualify for the debate, RFK Jr. needs to be at 15 points in four national polls – not completely impossible as his numbers vary widely from poll to poll and some show him getting near that number.
But he would also have to be on the ballot in enough states to theoretically have a chance at winning; in other words, states with a total of 270 electoral votes. That is not going to happen – he’s at 89 now and his campaign will not close that gap in 11 days.
That being said, he will almost certainly be on the ballot in at least 40 or so states by the time of the next debate in the early fall, so if his campaign doesn’t experience the usual third-party droop the closer the election gets, he may have a shot of getting on the stage.
It is not clear yet if there is going to be a “kid’s table” debate between the four other candidates. But if there is, it may not be a bad idea for Trump to jump in.
Downsides – he gets absolutely hammered by the other candidates and he raises their stature.
Upside – Trump wants to raise West and Stein’s stature and to convince Libertarians that their guy is a flake – even for a Libertarian, he is - who will not crack a single percentage point. In the first two elections Trump fought, the Libertarian got about 3 and then, in 2020, 2%.
In fact, that 2% made the difference in keeping Trump from being re-elected.
The other possible advantage is the number of people who would be on that stage. In 2016, Trump’s debate (and primary campaign in general) was to ignore the group of candidates and focus his wrath on one at a time. While the rest were running for president the old fashioned way – look at me I’m better than the other 15 people – Trump ran against each one individually for a bit then moved on to the next victim.
It really was a “you don’t have to run faster than the bear, just faster than the other guy” campaign.
With five people on that debate stage, Trump could repeat that tactic. He just seems to thrive more in that environment than one-on-one.
And a comparison of note: in both 2016 and 2020, Trump was behind in the polls at this point in the race. In mid-June in those races, Clinton led him by more than 5% and Biden led him by more than 8%.
This week’s epigram is, again, not an epigram but an exchange between two characters in the fun bit of televised witch-based whimsy “Jonathan Strange and Mr. Norrell.”
A “good guy” character with a gun stops a bad guy character in an alley in Venice. He points the gun and says:
“Do you want to be shot?”
“Nooo!”
“Then behave differently.”
Then behave differently – what wonderful advice for these times.
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