35 and a Citizen

…And Not an Insurrectionist

In the wake of the absurdity that was Thursday’s verdict in the case of the Democratic Party and Joe Biden V. Donald Trump (I think technically it was the State of New York, but who’s quibbling over that?) it seems a good time to review who can be president and whether or not you can give money to a person to shut up.

Trump, as you know, was convicted of 34 felonies for, um, er…this is the tricky part.  I think, the best I could figure it out as even the judge and prosecutor seemed a bit hazy on the topic, is that Trump decided to give a porn star some cash to keep quiet about an affair? a one-night stand? a paid encounter? or whatever it was.  He did this through his lawyer Michael Cohen, a man who Trump wishes he had never met.

The feds – you know, the people who absolutely adore Trump – looked at this issue and said no.  The Federal Election Commission did the same.  But NY DA Alvin Bragg and his team apparently all sat around a bong one night and had a great “highdea:”  say the misdemeanor paperwork charges are actually a felony because he futzed with the paperwork in the furtherance of another crime.

They never really did settle on what that other crime was and only brought it up in closing arguments so the defense could not rebut the alleged but never filed charges and then the judge said to the jury that it really didn’t matter and that  whichever predicate allegation you want to base your conviction – sorry, your deliberations on – is fine and you can mix and match them if you want, too.

To best explain the mix and match aspect, imagine you are driving on a street one day at 20 MPH, the next at 30 MPH, and the next at 40 MPH in a 35 MPH zone and a cop sees you, pulls you over, and hands you a ticket for driving 90 miles an hour.

Another funny thing about the trial is that what Trump did – paying someone to shut up – is not illegal.  At all.

There are three paying people to keep quiet scenarios: first, your neighbor happens to look over the fence one day, sees you in flagrante with the pool boy, and demands money or he’ll tell your husband when he gets back from the cement convention.

Second, the neighbor demands money or he will tell everyone about the pool boy. 

And third is you happen to notice the neighbor out of the corner of your eye as the pool boy is pulling up his trunks and then go have a chat with him and offer him money to keep quiet about the whole thing.  That’s creating a non-disclosure agreement and that’s legal.

Just as marking “legal expenses’ in the memo of a check you give to your lawyer.  Just as using your own money to cover a putative campaign cost is legal.

So where does that leave the state of the race? 

Trump can still run and is not barred from winning and since he’s never been charged, let alone convicted of insurrection, (as the Supreme Court pointed out) he’s fine on that front.

And he’s 35 years old and a citizen so that’s okay, too.

As for being a convicted felon doesn’t matter either – even here in California, although there are some twists for state and local officials. In California, for example, there is there is a state law reads that the candidate cannot “have been convicted of a felony involving accepting or giving, or offering to give, any bribe, the embezzlement of public money, extortion or theft of public money, perjury, or conspiracy to commit any of those crimes.”

Even if the law covered federal candidates, it would still not apply.

Being able to be elected president, in other words, has a surprisingly low bar.  It’s a bit reminiscent of being pope.

To be pope you have exist and you have to – at some point in your life – been baptized a Catholic – that’s it.

In other words, if and when Francis retires and the College of Cardinals goes into conclave, it is not technically impossible that while you’re sitting there having a beer and swearing at the Cubs on the TV the phone could ring and presto – you’re the pope (and if you’re not baptized, you can ask if the cardinals could call you back in a couple of hours and race to Mexico for a quickie baptism – they’ve gotta have them there.)

So what has the trial actually changed?  We should have a bit of a better idea when the post-conviction polls come out, but Trump voters will not abandon him and hardcore Biden people (they actually exist) will not look at the trial and say to themselves “Oh my God, how can this happen in America?” and switch over.

The pundits are looking to the independent voter, the soft Trump Republican, to gauge any change.  As to independent voters, that moniker is used far too often to describe moderate/centrist people and when it comes to Trump, very very few people have a moderate opinion (in polling averages now, the truly undecided is only about 5%.)

And he has rather high name recognition figures, so even the “low information” voter who tends to only take part in presidential elections will have some idea about what has happened.

The Democrats are counting on the squishies in the middle to say “that’s the last straw – I don’t care if the economy was great he’s a threat to the rule of law/democracy/decency/whatever else they can think of” (note – some polling is indicating this phenomena, though others are not.)

It is true that polling data suggests that to be the case, but Biden should not count on that being very true in very many cases.  If you are talking to  a pollster and he asks if you will vote for a convicted felon you will – in order not to appear icky and evil and stupid in the eyes of the person to whom you are speaking – say “Of course not!  Heaven Forfend that such an outcome is even a possibility!”

In other words, most of those people are lying.

As to the low information (they either really don’t care or are pretty stupid) they too will hear that Trump is a felon now.  First, it may not matter much – hell, their  brother’s a felon.

Second, the press has been loudly touting this as a “hush money” conviction which it really is not – they didn’t make Stormy give it back, did they?

So if they think it’s “he gave money to a porn star to keep her quiet” they will then think it’s not a big deal or may be a bit jealous.

Third, if they are told it’s about more than that they will simply not understand the charges and/or think they are very ticky-tack and both of those interpretations are correct:  Advantage: Trump.

In the end, the convictions will change little about the dynamic of the race going forward, unless the judge throws Trump in jail two days before the Republican convention.

Well, at least we know he looks good in orange.