Election Day, 2022:
What to Look For, What it Means, and What to Drink
So it’s come to this.
November 8, 2022 is finally here and, come hell or high water or stuffed ballot boxes or hysterical Tweets or epic meltdowns or cries of foul, we shall know much more about how the next two years will unfold late this evening…or Wednesday…or Friday…or maybe Thanksgiving?
On a more serious note, it is important to plan today with care – go vote if you haven’t already, make sure your phone is charged, strongly consider putting one of those “you can’t send an email unless you solve a math problem” self-preservation doohickies on your computer, and decide exactly what beverage goes with which state before the votes start rolling westward from the east coast.
The most important part first – since Kentucky’s polls close at 6 p.m., eastern time (sorry, but you’ll have to do the math for your own time zone; of course if you live in California it gives you an excuse to start early), that is a fine time to for a good bourbon (can’t go wrong with Maker’s Mark.) An hour later, Florida closes so there’s your screwdriver or you can follow South Carolina’s lead and go with a sweet tea and moonshine (Everclear will do) concoction.
There is a plethora of states – and therefore drinks choices to consider - closing at 8 p.m., but a nice Texas Shiner Bock could “meet the moment” best. The following hour you have Louisiana so that means a hurricane or a stop off at the drive-thru daiquiri stand for a five-gallon bucket of boozy bananas (no drive-thru daiquiri stands where you live? Too bad – you don’t know – and certainly won’t remember - what you’re missing.) At 10 p.m. Utah closes it polls so that would be…a diet Coke but don’t fret, Nevada calls it quits at the same time so that means either a $300 21-year-old single malt like Oban (before visiting the casino) or a $1.49 Natty Daddy tall boy down on the corner (post-casino.)
And then at 11 p.m., it’s California’s turn so in honor of the expected red wave it’s hearty Napa red time (one thing the state still gets right.)
Anything else to consider…? Ahh – the actual voting bit.
As the results move from east to west, there are a few races to watch to get sense of how the evening may progress.
First, there is the second congressional district in Rhode Island, where Republican Allan Fung is facing Democrat Seth Magaziner (for more background on this race and why the Democrats have run the tone-deaf campaign they have run, see here:
The race matters – and is getting national attention - because Fung – even in the blue Rhode Island – is actually a bit of a favorite to win, which would mean the district would have its first Republican in 30 years (and beyond that, a Democrat has held the seat for 74 of the last 90 years.) If Fung does win – even with Dr. Jill recently stopping by to campaign for Magaziner – it would signal a good night for the Republicans as the district is also – despite it’s political ancestry - relatively representational of nationwide demographics.
If Fung loses, Republicans should be prepared for a bumpy night. If he just squeaks through, that means it may not be such a big wave after all, but if he takes it by 5 or more points it really could be Katy bar the door for the GOP.
In the first district in Indiana, Democrat incumbent Frank Mrvan is facing off against Jennifer-Ruth Green. The district encompasses the northwest part of the state (think Gary…on second thought…don’t) and is more Chicago rather than Indianapolis-oriented. Again, no Republican has taken the seat in a long time, nearly 100 years (really) in this case, so the fact that this is even a contest shows how narrow the national path to victory is for the Democrats.
Michigan’s third district should be an easy win for Democrats, usually, but not this year. Following a very questionable – both ethically and politically - playbook of helping “extreme” Republicans in primaries by buying ads and such, Trump fan John Gibbs bounced anti-Trump incumbent Peter Meijer and is facing off against Democrat (and former Obama administration Justice Department official) Hilary Scholten. The registration numbers favor the Democrat and Scholten is a marginal favorite, but the fact that there is any question about this race shows how nervous Democrats should be. Scholten holds on – good for the Blue Team; Gibbs pulls off the upset and the red wave could make the Red Wedding from “Game of Thrones” look tame.
In California, congressionally, all eyes are on Orange and Kern Counties. Around Bakersfield, Democrat Rudy Salas is running the kind of campaign his party should have run nationally, focusing on jobs and the economy, etc., while Republican incumbent David Valadao is facing, after re-districting, a very Democratic district and is banking on “crossover” appeal to keep his seat.
In Orange County, Michelle Steel is favored to keep her seat with the question being at this point by how much. On the flip side, the egregious incumbent Katie Porter is deadlocked with Republican Scott Baugh, a race so close that President Biden personally campaigned with her… whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for Porter remains to be seen.
Moving on to the Senate-side, six of the eight races considered by Real Clear Politics to be “toss-ups” are held by Democrats. That means they pretty much have to run the table just to keep the current 50-50, with Kamala breaking the tie, “control” - a very difficult proposition. One race to watch is the New Hampshire contest between Democrat incumbent Maggie Hassan is being forced to fend off a major late push by Republican Don Bolduc, yet another “extreme” candidate Democrats were somehow convinced would be easier to beat in November so they helped him in the primary.
Of course, there are the high profile, high-wire contests in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona and the races that should not be close at all – Washington and Colorado and the one that has everyone (well, at least every poli-nerd) transfixed – Pennsylvania.
The Fetterman/Oz race is an amazing example of what can only be called political malpractice occurring in real-time and in public. The Fetterman campaign’s decision to hide the seriousness of his post-stroke condition was not only morally repugnant but politically suicidal…if it got out…and, in that debate, it really really got out. There was no spinning their way out of that, though if Fetterman had been honest with the public four months ago – see here:
- he would still be the odds-on favorite, stroke or not.
At the gubernatorial level, the surprising amount of panicked defense time and money the Democrats are being forced to spend has not been seen in a very very long time. And when you are desperately playing defense you have no energy to even think about going on offense – of the 10 truly “in-play” governorships, nine are currently held by Democrats and the tenth – Arizona’s Kari Lake/Katie Hobbs contest – is really no longer a tight race – see here:
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But, seriously, New York and Oregon are dead heats? It boggles the mind.
So what does this mean for California, that international leader in eminently exportable but awful politics?
Currently it appears that Republicans have at least one really good chance to take their first statewide office since Arnold and that would be Lanhee Chen in the Controller’s race. Political observers also give Nathan Hochman a shot at defeating the execrable Rob Bonta, Jack Guerrero is within striking distance of the extremely ethically-challenged Fiona Ma, and in the technically “non-partisan” (yeah, right) Superintendent of Public Instruction race, Lance Ray Christensen can hopefully topple teacher’s toady Tony Thurmond’s throne.
Finally, in the legislature there appears to be a possibility that Republicans could wrestle the ”super-majority” from Assembly Democrats (the Senate, maybe not so much.) That would be a huge win and would at least curtail Governor Gavin Newsom’s tax (except for his friends) and spend (except on cops and roads) agenda going forward and seriously crimp his presidential ambitions.
So organize your refreshments, keep one window on your computer open to the California Globe - https://californiaglobe.com/ - and sit back an enjoy the ride this evening.
It’s always more fun when elections actually matter.