LAPD Union Says Archuleta, Hatami for DA

Big Recommendations in Tight Race

Note - there are two stories below; the first is the endorsement/recommendation piece and the second is a look at a pair of recent polls

Thanks again to the California Globe for running these pieces. You can visit the website at: https://californiaglobe.com/

The Los Angeles Police Protective League – the rank and file officers union – has recommended two candidates to replace LA District Attorney George Gascon:  Judge Debra Archuleta and Deputy District Attorney Jon Hatami.

Over the weekend, the LAPPL – which has clearly loathed Gascon since before he was even elected in 2020 -  stated the following:

“George Gascon has got to go.  He must be replaced by someone who will put victims above criminals and who will hold accountable those who break the law and endanger our community.”

The LAPPL “urges” people to look at Hatami and Archuleta and “vote for the one who most aligns with your values.”

The dual recommendation is not exactly an endorsement per se, but with a crowded field of challengers the blessing of the LAPD officers could go a long way to breaking Archuleta and Hatami clear of the pack.

There are 11 people challenging Gascon in the March 5 primary.  The top two finishers in the primary will face off in November.  Though wildly unpopular (polls have shown Gascon “unfavourability gap” in the 30 point range,) with such a large field it is more than possible that Gascon could get about 20% of the vote (polling shows him in the 15 to 20% range) and thereby make it into the fall runoff.

Various polls at various times have placed various candidates in the second place slot to be Gascon’s challenger in the fall.  Along with Archuleta (most recently) and Hatami, candidates Nathan Hochman, Eric Siddall, Maria Ramirez, and John McKinney have all been seen at one point in the campaign as the most likely to make it through the primary.

However, somewhere between about one-third and one-half of LA voters have yet to decide who to support, leaving openings for one or more to surge forward in the final two weeks.

And a high profile police union recommendation could be just the ticket for Hatami and Archuleta to do just that.

“I am completely honored and humbled by the LAPPL recommendation,” said Hatami.  “The men and women of the LAPD dedicate their lives to the safety of our community every single day.  They need a DA who is willing to partner with them to make sure all of LA is safe.”

Archuleta was equally chuffed by the recommendation and vowed to work non-stop until primary day.

“This recommendation by the proud men and women of the LAPD is deeply meaningful,” said  Archuleta.  “We are not safer now than we were three years ago when George Gascón took office and I look forward to partnering with law enforcement to reverse his ill-conceived directives and let victims of crime know that they once again have an advocate in the District Attorney’s Office.”

And now closer look at new poll numbers; the polls were taken prior to the LAPPL announcement:

In the race for Los Angeles District Attorney, the polling so far has been pretty consistent.

In previous polls, 15% said they will vote in the March primary for current Disaster Attorney George Gascon, another 20% or so are split amongst the 11 eleven challengers, and two thirds don’t know yet.

Two new polls show certain similarities to the pattern but they also indicate a few of the challengers may be separating themselves from the pack.

In a poll done by Impact Research, Gascon receives more support than typical, standing at 21%.  But the poll also shows, for the first, three challengers getting double-digit support in the March vote (the top two finishers in March face off head-to-head in November.)

Judge Debra Archuleta leads the challengers with 12%, followed by former federal attorney Nathan Hochman at 11%, and Deputy District Attorney Eric Siddall at 10%.  Deputy District Attorney Maria Ramirez netted 7% while Jeff Chemerinsky, son of noted leftist layer Erwin Chemerinsky, pulls 5%.

This poll has only one-third of voters as being undecided.

There are a few points that should be noted about this poll.  First, as there is no “other” candidate number and the above numbers do total 100%, it appears that it may not have mentioned every challenger by name and could have left off the other six:  David Milton, Craig Mitchell. Jon Hatami, Lloyd Masson, Daniel Kapelovitz, and John McKinney.  Why they left off viable at least three candidates who have ranked in previous polls – McKinney, Mitchell, and Hatami – is not only unknown but a bit problematic.

Second, the polling universe was 400 LA County residents and had an error margin of 4.9%.

Third, Impact Research is an avowedly “progressive” firm that, for example, works with the Joe Biden and the California Teachers Association.

That should be taken into consideration, especially as the poll asked the questions again after voters “learn more about each candidate.”  In other words, the pollster tells the person being questioned about the candidates, a practice that is clearly fraught with ambiguity:  Did you know Candidate X gave a million dollars to charity last year?  Did you know Candidate Y has a picture of Hitler on his desk?

The “after learning” numbers in the poll are different.  Gascon drops to 20%, Archuleta goes to 10%, as does Hochman, and Siddall stays at 10%.

But Ramirez and Chemerinsky jump:  Ramirez doubles her support to 14% and Chemerinsky more than doubles his support to 11%, essentially expanding the log jam at second place.  About one-quarter remain undecided.

Separately, the poll does show Gascon as being deeply unpopular, with a 32% unfavorable/favorable gap, despite – or because of – having a name recognition factor of 76%.

A second poll of black voters done for KBLA - https://kbla1580.com/ - which has, obviously, an overwhelmingly black audience and bills itself as “unapologetically progressive” also points to Gascon’s inherent weaknesses.

“Just over one-in-five Black voters (21%) support incumbent DA George Gascón—however, a strong plurality disapprove of his performance as DA and nearly half are undecided in the race,” the poll states.

His unfavorability gap was smaller among black voters, but still significant at 15% (46% unfavorable to 31% favorable.)

Archuleta, Hochman, McKinney, and Chemerinsky have very slight positive numbers, but all of the challengers have “never heard of/can’t rate” numbers of about 80%.

As to the March primary, Gascon gets 21% again and again Archuleta comes in second, this time with 6%.  Hatami pulls 4%, McKinney, Hochman, Mitchell, and Chemerinsky pull 2% each and Siddall, Ramirez, and Milton each get 1%.  Nearly half of black voters remain undecided.

One note on the Gascon number:  considering the demographic and ideological tilt of the radio station, it should be higher.

The KBLA poll, which can be found in its entirety here - https://kbla1580.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/KBLA-LA-County-Election-Issues-Survey-Topline-2.5.24.pdf - like the Impact poll, then told respondents a bit about each candidate and asked the “who would you vote for?” question again.

To its absolute credit, the KBLA poll contains the information shared about each candidate and can be seen by clicking on the link and going to page 26 of the poll.

The “post-education” numbers shift rather dramatically for one candidate: John McKinney, one of only two African-Americans in the race.

Gascon actually goes up a bit to 24% but McKinney rockets ten points into second with 12%, possibly due to the mention of successful prosecution of the murderer of rapper/community supporter Nipsey Hussle.

Archuleta, Siddall, and Chemerinsky each got 4% and the other candidates aggregated 12%, but still one-third remain undecided.

The poll universe was 500 black likely March voters and has an error margin of 4.4%.