My Felericans

The Political Timing of the End of the Pandemic

Thanks again to American Thinker for running this piece. You can visit the website at: https://www.americanthinker.com/

Note - In response to the latest news out of the U.K. I updated this piece on Jan. 21

At some point in the relatively near future, President Joe Biden will be handed a speech that will read as follows:

“My Fellow Americans – Our long national nightmare is over.  The pandemic is a thing of the past and I am ordering the end of all federal COVID-related efforts and I implore those governors who have not lifted their emergency orders to do so immediately.  It’s time for all of us to get back to normal.”

Given Biden’s speech and cognition issues, he will most likely actually say ‘My Felericans – our long natural fair is covered,” but that is beside the point – his political facts of life demand that this moment must occur within the next few months.

With the abject failure – so far – of his massive wokedream spending package and the egregious attempt to federalize all elections, the Biden administration needs a very big win before November and what could be simpler and easier than simply declaring one?  Democrat hopes that the January 6 “insurrection” would provide one seem to be coming up short, despite someone, desperately in need of a talking point, recently shaking Attorney General Merrick Garland by the lapels to get him to finally file the first and only “sedition” related charges.  (It should be noted here that people who engage in treason tend not to leave their guns at home to comply with local law, or call a few days later to ask if they accidentally left their coat behind, or make sure that the whole thing is wrapped up in time for dinner…but I digress.)

Now, predictions are like politicians – everyone’s got one and they are usually wrong.  However, as to this issue the only question is one of timing: political timing.

Laying the groundwork (or softening up the enemy, whichever is preferred) is underway;  the prequel to official vanquishing of the virus has already begun. 

It is not coincidental that the media – and even the CDC -  has been recently noting there may actually be a difference between dying “with COVID” and “from COVID.”  There has also been some movement on focusing on death rates instead of case rates, especially since Omicron tends not be much worse than the icky sniffles and the fact that triple-masked, restaurant scolding, self-quarantining, uber-vaccinated types are getting Omicron in large numbers and adding to the once all-telling, panic driving case count.

To be blunt, this effort has been about as subtle as Ralphie’s attempts to get a Red Ryder BB gun in “A Christmas Story,” but even some of these baby steps – clomps, really – have provoked outrage from pandemic purists, hence the delicacy.  The  backlash from the true believers to the CDC mentioning that maybe people should only quarantine for five days instead of 10 (a random number unsupported by data to begin with) was swift and harsh and would have been hysterical if it weren’t so troubling. 

The dedicated pandemicists who have defined their lives over the past 20-odd months by their strict adherence to the SCIENCE reacted to the news as if they were members of an end-of-the-world cult after a predicted doomsday came and went without a whimper.  “Oh, sorry – we’re sure the world is still going to end on a Thursday but it turns out we’re not really sure which Thursday of what year, so please stick with us” the cult leaders try to tell their followers shortly before they are torn limb from limb.  It must be a terrible thing to have the very core of one’s existence shattered by a bureaucrat; therefore the word must come from “on high” if they are to be kept quiet.

For most other people, the reaction to such an announcement will range from “no shit, Sherlock,” to being somewhat pleased they can now go to a party without going to the doctor first, to glad they don’t have to remember to carry a mask around, to happy (maybe?) the kids are back in school for good this time and back again to “no shit, Sherlock.” 

But what Biden and the Democrats are really hoping for is a reaction of “thankyou, thankyou, thankyou, you’re our savior – how many times can we vote for the people you want us to vote for?”

Which brings us back to the matter timing – too soon and your message of “I freed you, now you must vote for me” may lose its impact by November; too late and the national angst may build even further and, crucially, you miss the primary season.

Of course, it would be handy to tie the announcement to some real or manufactured “good news” on the virus, but it’s not strictly necessary – why bother to stop playing politics with COVID now?

Announcing in early May– which could have a nice “you’re now allowed to go have a Memorial Day backyard barbecue!” hook – would help certain candidates in some rather key state – Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, for example, all hold votes in that month with New Jersey, California, and New York going to the polls shortly thereafter.

The problem with this timing is that it could come too late to influence early/absentee voters, which is - as we have seen – an extremely important voting block for Democrats.  To tap that vein would necessitate an April announcement – about no more than 10 weeks away, which could be too soon.

Tying it, as Biden attempted to do last year, to the next major holiday – the Fourth of July – would give a bit more time for the seeds of the strategy to be sown and could inculcate fond and strong memories in people but it does miss the important primary window (and making an announcement in April that everything will be over by then misses the entire point of the effort and is too muddy and too unbelievable to move the needle).

Which brings us to just before Labor Day, which is handy to jump-start fall campaigns but could be too late to build up any general goodwill and will be so overwhelmingly and obviously political in nature that even CNN may be forced to notice.

While the Labor Day window does leave people irritated for the entire summer, one significant advantage for the administration of the Labor Day scenario is that, due to its proximity to Election Day they can claim that it would be too late to change the current “emergency pandemic” voting systems - everyone gets mailed a ballot, drop boxes, harvesting, etc. - that have so indisputably and clearly benefited Democrats up and down the ballot.

As for just holding on like grim death to the power they have accrued (and the ratings and clicks they have got) over the past 20 months, even life-long criminals know in their heart when the jig is up and the marching orders will be reluctantly followed, with the understanding that the calculation has be made that offering “freedom” will more than make up for the potential – as not every state is going to back to the pre-pandemic election rules - downtick in the overwhelming mail-in, ballot harvesting, etc. advantage. 

The faceless (literally in this case) bureaucrats may whine and moan but they will eventually slither away – like the tree in the forest, if no one hears a public health official order masks for two-year-old’s, does it really happen?  Anyway, they can just wait around for – or create – the next one.

So mark your calendars, my Felericans – we shall soon be able to breathe free.

UPDATE - With United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson essentially declaring the pandemic over in Britain within the past couple of days, the argument for taking the risk and claiming victory and ending the pandemic will become stronger within the administration. Though Johnson - for political reasons - was unable to finesse the timing and had it thrust upon him - just as Marge Simpson’s sister Selma had celibacy thrust upon her - the decision can still be instructive to the Biden administration.

The Biden team will be watching the public reaction to the move intensely as they will practically be getting, to use a football analogy, a “free look at the defense” before they throw what could be seen as a “Hail Mary” pass. Additionally, they can now point to the U.K. and say “hey, they did it and it worked out fine,” bolstering their own argument, reasoning, talking points, etc. (contrarily, it will also put pressure on Biden to declare the pandemic over as keeping the status quo in the face of a “successful” end will become even more difficult).